I decided I wouldn't write this entry until I was pretty sure that Sen. Obama would actually get enough support to get the nomination. I am pretty sure that he will, at this point, now that Sen. Clinton has backed him and suspended her campaign. I think I deserve some bragging rights on this. I was far ahead of the high paid DC and NYC pundits, and ahead of almost all of the pundits in predicting that Obama would get the nomination.

I didn't start this blog until August of 2007. But on May 11, 2007, as part of an ongoing political discussion, I posted on the "Stumps" email list, (hosted by Tim Hermach and the Native Forest Council in Eugene, OR) which at the time was, (and probably still is) I believe, the largest and most political email list that I am on, the following email. In that email, I predicted that Obama would receive the nomination. Oh yes, I was plenty chided and teased by my fellow list members, with a number of offers to wager (which I didn't take!).

I do have to say, though, that I was somewhat wrong about the "horrible disclosure," which did happen - i.e. the Rev. Wright conundrum. Although I do believe that it has been overplayed by the media, it, neverless, as Obama admitted, is a legitimate political issue. However, I was correct is tto the extent that under my definition of "horrible disclosure" as something that would derail the nomination, there has been no "horrible disclosure."

Nevertheless, the Wright episode, combined with already existing racial fears, did cause Obama to somewhat back into the nomination rather than gallop in, which is where I thought it was heading.

Since the Wright link was going to come out sooner than later, I guess Obama's team thought, why should we bring it up? It did get them far down the road with the campaign unencumbered by the issue. And, legitimately, it could be possible that had it come out earlier, it may have been enough to block him in Iowa, thus crushing his renegade campaign. So it was a hard call, and they did eek through, but barely. Obama blew it by not realizing the problem and dealing with it himself months before he ever announced. "A stitch in time saves nine," as the saying goes, and it's ohhh so true.

But I'm still proud of Sen. Obama. I have met him twice now, which I'm sure he can't possibly remember. The first time was when he was campaigning for his Senate seat. There was a hastily scheduled public appearance at the courthouse lawn in Metropolis and I attended. Sen. Durbin was there, along with aides, and several state and local politicians. There weren't many people there, maybe a dozen at the most, and I got to speak with Sen. Obama. Maybe a year ago or so, he came back to Metropolis for a town meeting. This time he had gained "rock star" status, and he packed the community center with standing room only, this time hundreds of people. They came from Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and so did the media. It was a spectacle event. After he spoke and answered questions, he hung around and shook hands and spoke to people as he made his way out. I got in his way and he turned and shook my hand. I lobbied him briefly on national forest issues. He said he was interested and to write him. I thanked him and moved out of the way. He is very calm and engaging, no doubt.

Interestingly, I attended Carol Moseley Braun's kick off of her bus tour on her successful Senate campaign, which occurred on that same courthouse lawn in Metropolis. I thought a lot of Braun at the time, and still do. Her campaign generated a lot of excitement. I spoke for a long time at that event with a young African American female reporter from the Boston Globe who was reporting on Braun's historic campaign to become the first African American female U.S. senator. If I remember, I was quoted in one of her stories. But Braun just didn't have the same "rock star" status that Obama has obtained. Nevertheless, there must be something in the water in Illinois to breed these barrier busters. In fact, Hillary Clinton is from Illinois also!

So Chris Matthews, Tim Russert, George Stephanopolous, George Will, Cokie Roberts, the whole lot of you high paid big time media talking heads - you were out-punditized by a low income guy who lives in the woods and posts his blog entries via solar power. Shouldn't you be at least a little embarassed!

Here's the May 11, 2007 message:

-----Original Message-----
From: Mark Donham [mailto:xxxxxxxxx@earthlink.net]
Sent: Friday, May 11, 2007 11:18 AM
To: 'stumps@forestcouncil.org'
Subject: RE: [Stumps] Obama

As an Illinoisan who watched Obama come out of nowhere to win decisively in a crowded primary with a number of other good candidates that had more statewide name recognition and party backing, I am predicting that Obama, short of some horrible disclosure, which I doubt will happen, will win the nomination. I see the same things happening in his national campaign that happened in the race for Senate. I hope to write about what happened in Illinois in more detail and publish it somewhere online in the near future. But, (and I'm not saying this necessarily because I've jumped behind him 100% but because this is honestly what I see happening) I am going to go out on a limb, so to speak, and predict that Obama will become the Democratic nominee. I think Alex Beam, while making good points, has yet to really experience the mysterious charisma that Obama has and is underestimating, like most of us in Illinois did. Time will tell.
Mark D.