I certainly haven't really envied Obama being in the middle between Israel and Iran. These two countries, which are nearly neighbors, are intense rivals. Israel's government seems to think that Iran is trying to find a way to wipe them off the map, something that isn't going to happen. Iran is worried that Israel is going to attack them for having nuclear power, something under international law they are allowed to have, as long as they follow the rules.

Turmoil in that region could cause all kinds of instability in the world, which almost certainly would make gasoline and other petro fuels costs go up. It's gasoline prices that could make Obama's re-election much more difficult. So, it isn't in Obama's interest if Israel attacks Iran to try and dismantle their nuclear program.

But, if Iran ended up going public with the fact that it had produced a nuclear weapon in the years of the Obama presidency thus far, that could damage Obama badly politically also. There would be a huge wave of "I told you so's" from Netanyahu and the republicans. Fear mongering ads run by republicans about the threat posed by Iran would make Willie Horton look more like a peeping tom and not like a murderer.

Within the last few days, with gas prices already climbing, Israel reportedly not telling the U.S. all of its military plans, and an imminent summit with Netanyahu on the schedule, Obama made his move, and in my opinion, it was the best move he could make.

First, he told Iran that he would take military action against them if they tried to produce a bomb, and that he wasn't bluffing. Second, he told Israel not to attack Iran. That should be enough for the moment to maintain the status quo.

Iran keeps saying that they don't want to make a bomb. It does seem like they probably would want to - since it seems agreed that Israel has a number of them, notwithstanding they don't have permission from the "international community" to possess them. But if we have no evidence (and the scientists claim they can tell if materials necessary to a bomb are being produced by their atmospheric emissions) that Iran is trying a build a bomb, then perhaps we should take them at their word, at least for now. If they do make a huge mistake and get caught trying to build a bomb, then Obama is now committed to having to take action or else completely lose face, which he won't let happen.

I think the Iranians know that Obama has this side to him that can be very resolute and militaristic, if he feels he has to protect the U.S. interests. But, the fact that Obama is pressuring Israel to not attack Iran publicly should be giving Iran some consolation. If Israel is stupid enough to cross Obama, they cannot expect the full force of the U.S. to come to their aid if something goes wrong - and if they can't get that kind of guarantee from the U.S., they aren't going to get it elsewhere. That has to be sobering for Israel, which has become, unfortunately, used to controlling U.S. policy toward the middle east.

So I think that Obama, at this point, is making the best of a bad situation. It will be interesting to see how his summit with Netanyahu comes out, and whether Iran will call his bluff. My prediction is that neither country will call Obama's bluff. All they have to do is look at what happened in Pakistan to know that Obama is willing to play hard ball if necessary.