Sunday News Shows, Dec. 16, 2007

It was an interesting day for the Sunday news shows today. First, amazingly enough, as we get into the last few weeks before the Iowa caucuses and the New Hamphsire primary, CBS, well, at least KFVS, channel 12 in Cape Girardeau, MO, did not carry "Face the Nation."

There was a couple interesting tidbits on the Chris Matthews show. The first one that I found interesting was Dan Rather's prediction, in the "Tell Me Something I Don't Know" segment, that John Edwards would win Iowa. He was the only one of the panel to think that, but it did surprise me and make me wonder why he would say such a thing. Then, when you read between the lines on some of the statements of the panelists on the Stephanopolous show about not counting Edwards out, one has to wonder if something is happening in Iowa that the mainstream media isn't fully reporting.

You can't really discount Edwards, because he has somehow positioned himself as the person who will go to the mat for the middle class. That message will resonate with a lot of people. He has been outside the "fray" of the frontrunners, although he is always mentioned as one of the three in that category. If Obama and Clinton get sucked too far into attacking each other, Edwards could slide in. As the roundtable on the Stephanopous noted, Edwards has more support in the rural areas of Iowa, and he is everyone's "second" choice, regardless of choice one, and according to the rules of Iowa's caucuses, that will be important.

But I still feel that Obama will emerge from Iowa with a bigger margin of victory than anyone is expecting. I believe that because I still feel there are strong parallels between his Senate campaign in Illinois and what is going on nationally, and that is what happened in Illinois against strong candidates. Obama is going to end up being the candidate of change, as the pundits call it, and that is what most people are looking for.

The Des Moines Register has endorsed Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. Normally, I think that would be a plus. But under the circumstances, I'm not so sure that Clinton will get a huge bounce from it. The reason I think that is that Clinton is now trying desperately to escape out from under the cloud of being the "establishment" candidate. That is difficult, because Bill Clinton, as a president, was very much pro-corporation, and did not make the systematic changes that many on the left are calling for to equalize the growing disparity between the have and have nots in our society. It seems self evident that Hillary is also not going to make any fundamental changes in the system to help reverse the trend of, as so well protrayed in the play "Marat-Sade" "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. And there are a LOT more poor in this country than rich. So, an endorsement from a corporate newspaper, especially one owned by the New York Times, which could be seen as protecting a "favorite daughter," a Senator from New York, may only entrench the view that she is the establishment candidate. If I were Obama, I wouldn't be afraid to suggest that.

While Edwards is stumping for the poor perhaps harder than Obama, I believe that most people just think that we need someone fundamentally different that is going to wipe the slate clean and start over with a fresh, new approach. When people look at the three main candidates, I think Obama stands out as the fresh, new face.

And one of the obstacles he was facing was the lack of belief in his own African American community that he could actually deliver. And, although I could never totally understand it, many in the African American community think that Bill Clinton, as president, was very much for them. That attitude is so prevalent that it has often been written and spoken in the press that Bill Clinton is often referred to as the "first black president," although he is as white as I am. So, instead of an African American candidate running the table on the black vote, Obama was only splitting it. But I will tell you one thing - this beating up on Obama over his drug use during his teens is probably the one thing that will drive the African American community to Obama.

There is great sensitivity about the "cocaine" issue in the African American community, because so many black males are in jail for long sentences because they possessed "crack" cocaine, when white collar whites that are caught with powder cocaine get slapped on the wrist. There is also a lot of consternation about the number of black males in prison compared with whites, and the impact that has had on poor black families. To try and hang Obama on that, when probably Hilllary tried some drugs too at that age, is low down and dirty, and will only bring the black community to his defense. That is why the dude that perpetrated that story is gone, at least officially.

It's going to be great fun the next couple weeks. Hold onto your hats - there are going to be some very interesting political winds blowing.

Oh yeah, Mitt Romney was on Meet the Press. (Yawn). I tried to listen, but the guy is just totally boring. I can't see him becoming president.